DELUSIONAL GANG-UPS Vs. POLITICAL CAPITAL: THE 2027 JOURNEY AHEAD OF TINUBU, ATIKU AND OBI



 By PROF. YEMI OKE, SAN


Background:


The “game” seems to be on again. The same forces and gladiators are re-grouping, aligning and re-aligning ahead of the 2027 general elections. Put differently, with just two years in office, the scheming has started to grab political powers from the current occupant, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. 


Some new “bottles” are being prepared to share “old wines”. Nigerian electorates seem now better prepared to sieve through to see beyond wooly “colouration” and “de-colouration” of all political groupings.

 

Atiku is in a new alliance without former Governor Okowa, his running-mate. Obi is being lured to trade-off his loyal running-mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed to strike a deal with Atiku, even as some Nigerians perceive Datti as a material for future presidency, being without overhangs of past political misdeeds. President Tinubu is rumored to be under pressure to dump his running-mate, Vice-President Kashim Shettima. The Presidency justifiably remains silent on the needless, misplaced, ill-timed rumor of Kashimu’s replacement.  


As a matter of reality, political forces seem to be gravitating towards the ruling Party, APC. More sitting Governors, Senators, House of Representatives members, State Assembly members, Commissioners, Special Advisers, Senior Special Assistants, Special Assistants and other grassroots “soldiers” are off-loading into the APC. 


The new alliance, ADC has also continued to deplete the strength of existing, feeble opposition structures.


Questions are being asked- will Atiku and/or Obi be able to dislodge Tinubu even as PDP, Labour Party prepare to field separate Presidential candidates? 


Will Atiku’s supporters be willing and ready to vote Obi as president on account of sentimental alliance with Atiku? Are “Obidients” ready to trade-off Obi to support Atiku as president? 


Beyond seeming impossibilities of agreeing on a flag-bearer, a number of fundamental flaws and irreconcilable differences also exist in the manner of building opposition alliance against Tinubu, if we objectively evaluate the unveiling political trends ahead of 2027.


*Manner of Building and Sustaining Opposition Politicking:*


Credibility and consistency of the opposition party, its core leaders and manner of politicking are vital components and selling-points to market an opposition party as justification for its preference over the ruling party. This is the principle in all decent democratic nations or climes.


Regrettably, both Atiku and Obi have been unable to diligently, consistently, painstaking build, nurture and/or work on sustaining their opposition politicking compared to the Tinubus. The duo have unwittingly or recklessly been jumping at every platforms or opportunities to get elected as President. 


In a bid to becoming President, Atiku had twice abandoned the PDP and had also sought Tinubu’s support. The later yielded his then political structure, ACN to assist Atiku while continuing to diligently build his opposition structures. Similarly, Obi who became Governor through APGA had since moved from PDP, Labour and now (arguably, ADC). 


In contrast with Tinubu, Buhari and others, the driving force and objective of the political pursuit of Atiku and Obi is not about building or sustaining any opposition party structure but grabbing existing ones to become President. 


The late President Buhari was able to become President because of sustained aspiration and consistency of building opposition political structures, which eventually paid-off when Tinubu agreed to work with him by off-loading ACN with CPC and splinters of PDP and others to form APC. 


The only opposition coalition that was built, carefully nurtured and strategically positioned is the ruling APC. It took years for it to get entrenched. It is, therefore, a herculean task to successfully challenge and defeat the ruling party which seems to be daily structuring, restructuring and consolidating even with its just concluded Congress that elected a new, vibrant National Chairman in person of Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda. 


*Formidability of the Ruling Party:*


The party structure of the ruling APC appears to be extremely formidable. The coalition ADC has no single Governor in their midst. PDP has lost a few of its Governors to the APC, and more is predicated to be on their way to the ruling party.


The trend is replicated at the National Assembly. Cross-carpeting in recent times has been to the advantage of the ruling APC, and this is replicated at the levels of the Houses of Assembly of several states in Nigeria. APC seems not only to be ruling but it is also firmly in control of most power structures of Nigeria. 


Effective control of power structures are vital elements for projecting or speculating the trends of power-shift in a democratic setting. The only Governor under the Labour party has voiced tacit support for Tinubu. Datti, the running-mate seems not keen about decamping to the ADC coalition, for obvious reasons. No significant harvests have been recorded on the part of the new coalition, ADC at the level of National and State Houses of Assembly, and from other structures of governance.  


Similarly, PDP has been losing the remnants of its formidability to the ruling APC at alarming rates.

 

*Our statistics, arguably though, indicate that APC now controls 81.28% of Nigeria’s total political governance structures, including political appointments and appointees at various levels of government.*


*APC had 59 Senators and 162 House of Representatives members in 2023, and grew it to 74 Senators and 207 Reps by July 2025. It added three new Governors - won Edo State from PDP while PDP’s Delta and Akwa-Ibom States got voluntarily off-loaded to APC.*

 

*APC grew by 18.7% in 2023-2024 and by 31.2 % in 2024-2025, and is still growing*. 


*PDP got further depleted after the 2023 elections by 41.6 %, while Labour Party shed 18.2 % in 2024 and another 28.8 % in 2025, largely due to the new coalition*. 


*However, the new coalition, ADC grew by 150% largely due to influx from PDP and LP. But, the growth of ADC represents net-negative-growth for PDP, LP and ADC having further depleted and fragmented the strength of the main opposition parties*. 


It remains curious and rather unrealistic how the duo of Atiku and Obi may be able to dislodge Tinubu who has never lost a contested election in the history of his political venturing. He won and has been winning as an ordinary politician. His strategy is to consistently build human beings as vital political capital. This eventually paid off. His political coasts have continued expanding in leaps and bounds. 


It is always difficult and challenging to engage Tinubu in any form of political contest. He has always won. *It seems a futile display of political hallucination and infantry electioneering tactics to attempt defeating or dislodging Tinubu as a sitting President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.*  


*Conclusion:*

Our empirical finding is that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock Villa in the year 2027 until 2031. Dislodging President Tinubu is not only unrealistic, but it appears practically impossible. 


A smart approach for the opposition would have been to consolidate healing of past wounds and building confidence ahead of future elections in the post-Tinubu era. 


Power will definitely return to the North in 2031. The time is ripe for serious-minded opposition to begin working and looking into the future realising that the ruling Party is also up to the game, and not expected to “sleep” or rest on its oars in the post-Tinubu era.

 

We found that APC may be challenged in the post-Tinubu era with the demise of the former President, Muhammadu Buhari, co-founder of APC. This is because most past Presidents tend to simply retire after leaving office, and may not be willing to dictate tunes or “rock-the-boat” after leaving office. 


The ruling Party may also need to manage the interest-driven “influx” of certain politicians in the post-Tinubu era. 


The political space may be up for grabs in the post-Tinubu era, from 2031 but certainly not in 2027. 


Quite frankly, research findings indicate that President Bola Tinubu will win and be re-elected massively in 2027 to consolidate the on-going structural, economic and political reforms in Nigeria till 2031. 


It is for both the ruling party and all opposition parties to deploy elements of “smart” politicking by building serious goodwill through credible leadership and political appointments for effective governance. This is what is called POLITICAL CAPITAL beyond misplaced “gang-ups” in the name of an unholy, unprincipled “alliance” of strange bed-fellows. 


Nigerian electorates are getting much more sophisticated and will now readily detect wooly, distorted “conspiracies” for the sake of grabbing political powers as against deploying POLITICAL CAPITAL to garner support and votes for credible candidates at future elections.


God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 


*This “GIANT” called Nigeria shall rise and never to fall again!!!*

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*PROF. YEMI OKE, SAN, PhD, FCArb, FCIT*

Faculty of Law, University of Lagos, Nigeria


July 25, 2025